Translation of ensemble weather forecasts into probabilistic air traffic capacity impact
Steiner, M., Bateman, R., Megenhardt, D., Liu, Y., Xu, M., Pocernich, M., & Krozel, J. (2010). Translation of ensemble weather forecasts into probabilistic air traffic capacity impact. Air Traffic Control Quarterly, 18, 229-254.
A novel approach for using high-resolution, ensemble-based numerical weather prediction model data for the purpose of weather-related, probabilistic aviation impact forecasting is presented. Ensemble-based weather forecasting will be a common feature in the Next Generation Air Transportation Syst... Show moreA novel approach for using high-resolution, ensemble-based numerical weather prediction model data for the purpose of weather-related, probabilistic aviation impact forecasting is presented. Ensemble-based weather forecasting will be a common feature in the Next Generation Air Transportation System. The approach uses ensemble model data to create probabilistic information and extraction of aviation-relevant characteristics from ensemble weather forecast data. By providing a representative sample of potential aviation impact, air traffic can be ready to respond to anticipated best- and worst-case outcomes. Using convective storms as an example, this paper demonstrates a proof-of-concept. In principal, it is applicable to other aviation weather hazards. Show less