Abstract

A prototype operational nowcast model of air-crew radiation exposure is currently under development and funded by NASA. The model predicts air-crew radiation exposure levels from both background galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar energetic particle events (SEP) that may accompany solar storms. ... Show moreA prototype operational nowcast model of air-crew radiation exposure is currently under development and funded by NASA. The model predicts air-crew radiation exposure levels from both background galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar energetic particle events (SEP) that may accompany solar storms. The new air-crew radiation exposure model is called the Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety (NAIRAS) model. NAIRAS will provide global, data-driven, real-time exposure predictions of biologically harmful radiation at aviation altitudes. Observations are utilized from the ground (neutron monitors), from the atmosphere (the NCEP Global Forecast System), and from space (NASA/ACE and NOAA/GOES). Atmospheric observations provide the overhead mass shielding information and the ground- and space-based observations provide boundary conditions on the incident GCR and SEP particle flux distributions for transport and dosimetry calculations. Exposure rates are calculated using the NASA physics-based HZETRN (High Charge (Z) and Energy TRaNsport) code. An overview of the NAIRAS model is given: the concept, design, prototype implementation status, data access, and example results. We also discuss issues encounter thus far as well as anticipated hurdles in the research to operations transition process. Show less