Abstract

Numerical simulations of three of the most severe historical tropical cyclones to affect the Delaware River Basin (DRB) are used to evaluate a new numerical approach that is a candidate model for the inland-coastal compound flood forecast. This study includes simulating interactions of tides/surg... Show moreNumerical simulations of three of the most severe historical tropical cyclones to affect the Delaware River Basin (DRB) are used to evaluate a new numerical approach that is a candidate model for the inland-coastal compound flood forecast. This study includes simulating interactions of tides/surges, freshwater streamflows, winds, and atmospheric pressure for the DRB. One-way coupling between the hydrologic (National Water Model [NWM]) and the ocean/wave (ADvanced CIRCulation model/WAVEWATCH III [ADCIRC/WW3]) models for the Delaware river-estuarine system is developed. The links between the coastal processes and the NWM are provided by two different hydraulic and hydrodynamic models: (i) a well-calibrated public-domain 1D hydraulic solver model (Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System [HEC-RAS]) and (ii) 1D/2D open-sourced hydrodynamic model (D-Flow Flexible Mesh [D-Flow FM]). First, the modeling system is tested to confirm model verification and stability when the system is forced with only tidal forcing. Then, the relative performance of each modeling approach (NWM/D-Flow FM/ADCIRC/WW3 and NWM/HEC-RAS/ADCIRC/WW3) is evaluated using observational data from Hurricanes Isabel (2003), Irene (2011), and Sandy (2012). Furthermore, the sensitivity of water level prediction to the streamflows, different wind products, and bed roughness are examined. Results show that the D-Flow FM is generally accurate for water levels: the water levels near the peak of the storms have askillranging from 0.79 to 0.91 with a negligible phase error. Simulations show that water level predictions depend on an accurate representation of the wind conditions and bottom roughness. The work shows that hydrodynamic predictions, especially upstream, are highly dependent on the streamflow discharges. Show less