Abstract

Crop yields are affected by many factors, related to breeding, management and climate. Understanding these factors, and their relative contributions to historical yield increases, is important to help ensure that these yield increases can continue in the future. Two important factors that can aff... Show moreCrop yields are affected by many factors, related to breeding, management and climate. Understanding these factors, and their relative contributions to historical yield increases, is important to help ensure that these yield increases can continue in the future. Two important factors that can affect yields are planting dates and the crop's growing degree day (GDD) requirements. We analyzed 25 years of data collected by the USDA in order to document trends in planting dates, lengths of the vegetative and reproductive growth periods, and the length of time between maturity and harvest for corn and soybeans across the United States. We then drove the Agro-IBIS agroecosystem model with these observations to investigate the effects of changing planting dates and crop GDD requirements on crop yields and fluxes of water and energy. Averaged across the U.S., corn planting dates advanced about 10 days from 1981 to 2005, and soybean planting dates about 12 days. For both crops, but especially for corn, this was accompanied by a lengthening of the growth period. The period from corn planting to maturity was about 12 days longer around 2005 than it was around 1981. A large driver of this change was a 14% increase in the number of GOD needed for corn to progress through the reproductive period, probably reflecting an adoption of longer season cultivars. If these changes in cultivars had not occurred, yields around 2005 would have been 12.6 bu ac(-1) lower across the U.S. Corn Belt, erasing 26% of the yield increase from 1981 to 2005. These changes in crop phenology, together with a shortening of the time from maturity to harvest, have also modified the surface water and energy balance. Earlier planting has led to an increase in the latent heat flux and a decrease in the sensible heat flux in June, while a shorter time from maturity to harvest has meant an increase in net radiation in October. Show less