Abstract

The Model Evaluation Tools (MET) has been developed in response to a need for a state-of-the-art verification system for evaluating the forecasts from high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems and to aid the Developmental Testbed Center (DTC) in testing and evaluation of the Weat... Show moreThe Model Evaluation Tools (MET) has been developed in response to a need for a state-of-the-art verification system for evaluating the forecasts from high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems and to aid the Developmental Testbed Center (DTC) in testing and evaluation of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. MET is a freely-available forecast verification package distributed through the DTC. MET includes numerous statistical tools for forecast evaluation, including traditional measures for categorical and continuous variables (e.g., RMSE, CSI). To account for the uncertainty associated with these measures, methods for estimating confidence intervals for the verification statistics are an integral part of MET. In addition, MET provides advanced spatial forecast evaluation techniques. Two general categories of spatial methods included in MET are "object-based" and "neighborhood" techniques. MET development has been guided by WRF users, the DTC, and international NWP and verification experts through workshops and user meetings. Future plans for MET include the addition of methods for evaluating probabilistic and ensemble forecasts and advanced approaches for assessing the uncertainty associated with verification metrics. Recent applications of MET (e.g., for the Storm Prediction Center's Spring Experiment) will be used to demonstrate MET capabilities. Show less