Abstract

We demonstrate that identification of stratospheric ozone changes attributable to ozone depleting substances and actions taken under the Montreal Protocol requires evaluation of confounding influences from volcanic eruptions. Using a state-of-the-art chemistry-climate model, we show that increase... Show moreWe demonstrate that identification of stratospheric ozone changes attributable to ozone depleting substances and actions taken under the Montreal Protocol requires evaluation of confounding influences from volcanic eruptions. Using a state-of-the-art chemistry-climate model, we show that increased stratospheric aerosol loading from volcanic eruptions after 2004 impeded the rate of ozone recovery post-2000. In contrast, eruptions increased ozone loss rates over the depletion era from 1980 to 1998. We also present calculations without any aerosol chemistry to isolate contributions from gas-phase chemistry alone. This study reinforces the need for accurate information regarding stratospheric aerosol loading when modeling ozone changes, particularly for the challenging task of accurately identifying the early signs of ozone healing distinct from other sources of variability. Show less