The role of unresolved clouds on short-range global horizontal irradiance predictability

Jiménez, Pedro A.; Alessandrini, Stefano; Haupt, Sue Ellen; Deng, Aijun; Kosovic, Branko; Lee, Jared A.; Delle Monache, Luca

doi:10.1175/MWR-D-16-0104.1

Jiménez, P. A., Alessandrini, S., Haupt, S. E., Deng, A., Kosovic, B., Lee, J. A., & Delle Monache, L. (2016). The role of unresolved clouds on short-range global horizontal irradiance predictability. Monthly Weather Review, 144, 3099-3107. doi:10.1175/MWR-D-16-0104.1

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Abstract

The shortwave radiative impacts of unresolved cumulus clouds are investigated using 6-h ensemble simulations performed with the WRF-Solar Model and high-quality observations over the contiguous United States for a 1-yr period. The ensembles use the stochastic kinetic energy backscatter scheme (SK... Show moreThe shortwave radiative impacts of unresolved cumulus clouds are investigated using 6-h ensemble simulations performed with the WRF-Solar Model and high-quality observations over the contiguous United States for a 1-yr period. The ensembles use the stochastic kinetic energy backscatter scheme (SKEBS) to account for implicit model uncertainty. Results indicate that parameterizing the radiative effects of both deep and shallow cumulus clouds is necessary to largely reduce (55%) a systematic overprediction of the global horizontal irradiance. Accounting for the model’s effective resolution is necessary to mitigate the underdispersive nature of the ensemble and provide meaningful quantification of the short-range prediction uncertainties. Show less

Published Version: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-16-0104.1

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Author(s)

Pedro A. Jiménez-NCAR/UCAR

Stefano Alessandrini-NCAR/UCAR

Sue Ellen Haupt-NCAR/UCAR

Aijun Deng

Branko Kosovic-NCAR/UCAR

Jared A. Lee-NCAR/UCAR

Luca Delle Monache-NCAR/UCAR

Title

The role of unresolved clouds on short-range global horizontal irradiance predictability

Publication Title

Monthly Weather Review

Date

2016-09

Volume

144

Issue

Pages

3099-3107

Resource Type

article

Peer Review

Refereed

Copyright Information

Copyright 2016 American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be "fair use" under Section 107 or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Law (17 USC, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the Society's permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form on servers, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statements, requires written permission or license from the AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policies, available from the AMS at 617-227-2425 or amspubs@ametsoc.org. Permission to place a copy of this work on this server has been provided by the AMS. The AMS does not guarantee that the copy provided here is an accurate copy of the published work.

Publisher's Version of Record

http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-16-0104.1

OpenSky Citable URL

http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7c24z3p

Funding Info

DOE/Department of Energy #DE-EE0006016 - A Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting

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The role of unresolved clouds on short-range global horizontal irradiance predictability

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