Hoar, T. J. (2014). Ensemble verification: Part II [presentation]. In International Cooperative for Aerosol Prediction (ICAP/AEROCAST) Validation 2014. University of North Dakota: Boulder, CO, US.
The atmospheric science literature is rich with ways to quantify the accuracy of a forecast. I am not going to discuss any of these. Whole conferences could be organized around this topic. All too often the poster/presentation states "I pushed the EnKF button and here are the results." with littl... Show moreThe atmospheric science literature is rich with ways to quantify the accuracy of a forecast. I am not going to discuss any of these. Whole conferences could be organized around this topic. All too often the poster/presentation states "I pushed the EnKF button and here are the results." with little to no regard as to whether or not the assimilation effectively used the information in the observations or whether the ensemble was useful. I am going to focus on metrics that inform about the effectiveness of an ensemble forecast assimilation system. Show less
