Abstract

Trends in extreme values of a large-scale indicator for severe weather (specifically, convective available potential energy (CAPE) multiplied by 0-6 km wind shear (shear)) are investigated using the generalized extreme value distribution with trends in the location parameter. The study primarily ... Show moreTrends in extreme values of a large-scale indicator for severe weather (specifically, convective available potential energy (CAPE) multiplied by 0-6 km wind shear (shear)) are investigated using the generalized extreme value distribution with trends in the location parameter. The study primarily looks at reanalysis observational data for the entire globe, but also performs an initial analysis of a regional climate model (CCSM3) over the United States. Results for global trends from the reanalysis data set are similar to those found previously for the frequency of high values of this indicator. Comparison of the reanalysis data over the United States with the CCSM3 output show numerous discrepancies, some of which are known problems with both the reanalysis and climate model output for precipitation. Show less