Abstract

The solar minimum period between solar cycles 23 and 24 has generated extensive study, in part because the changes in the upper atmosphere and ionosphere were so dramatic. Thermospheric density during 2008-2009, at the benchmark 400-km altitude, was shown to be approximately 30% lower than the pr... Show moreThe solar minimum period between solar cycles 23 and 24 has generated extensive study, in part because the changes in the upper atmosphere and ionosphere were so dramatic. Thermospheric density during 2008-2009, at the benchmark 400-km altitude, was shown to be approximately 30% lower than the previous solar minimum during 1996, in observations and in model simulations. Ionospheric densities were also estimated to be lower, by 10% to 20%. However, earlier analyses using data from the global network of Global Navigation Satellite System receivers did not find any significant reduction in global mean total electron content. Recent work reexamining those data using a limited set of receivers, but with consistent processing, identified a 19% reduction (Emmert et al., 2017, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JA023680). In this study, we compare model simulations of the thermosphere-ionosphere system during the 2008-2009 solar minimum to its predecessor and estimate a 16% reduction in global mean total electron content. This is consistent with the neutral thermosphere density change seen in model simulations and in satellite drag observations. In the model simulations, the primary driver is a 10% reduction in solar extreme ultraviolet irradiance, with a smaller contribution from lower geomagnetic activity, and a very small decrement due to increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide. Show less