Abstract

The importance of short term storm initiation forecasts has been recognized by the aviation community for a long time; however, the skill to correctly forecast storm initiation remains poor, even over land where dense, surface-based observational networks are available. Over the ocean, storm init... Show moreThe importance of short term storm initiation forecasts has been recognized by the aviation community for a long time; however, the skill to correctly forecast storm initiation remains poor, even over land where dense, surface-based observational networks are available. Over the ocean, storm initiation forecasts become even more challenging, owing to the lack of surface-based observational networks such as surface mesonets or the WSR-88D radar network. Recognizing the difficulty that the lack of surface-based observations causes, this study strives to utilize satellite-derived environmental parameters to identify favorable conditions for storm initiation over the ocean. The environmental fields being evaluated include: (1) sea surface temperature, (2) convergence and vorticity derived from QuikSCAT near-surface winds, (3) CAPE, CIN and relative humidity derived from AIRS soundings. Examples of typical storm initiation cases over the Gulf of Mexico will be discussed. Statistical properties of each environmental parameter that is favorable for storm initiation will be presented. Show less