Are multiseasonal forecasts of atmospheric rivers possible?
Tseng, K. €�C., Johnson, N. C., Kapnick, S. B., Delworth, T. L., Lu, F., Cooke, W., … Jia, L. (2021). Are multiseasonal forecasts of atmospheric rivers possible? Geophysical Research Letters, 48, e2021GL094000. doi:10.1029/2021GL094000
Atmospheric rivers (ARs) exert significant socioeconomic impacts in western North America, where 30% of the annual precipitation is determined by ARs that occur in less than 15% of wintertime. ARs are thus beneficial to water supply but can produce extreme precipitation hazards when making landfa... Show moreAtmospheric rivers (ARs) exert significant socioeconomic impacts in western North America, where 30% of the annual precipitation is determined by ARs that occur in less than 15% of wintertime. ARs are thus beneficial to water supply but can produce extreme precipitation hazards when making landfall. While most prevailing research has focused on the subseasonal (<= 5 weeks) prediction of ARs, only limited efforts have been made for AR forecasts on multiseasonal timescales (>= 3 months) that are crucial for water resource management and disaster preparedness. Through the analysis of reanalysis data and retrospective predictions from a new seasonal-to-decadal forecast system, this research shows the existing potential of multiseasonal AR frequency forecasts with predictive skills 9 months in advance. Additional analysis explores the dominant predictability sources and challenges for multiseasonal AR prediction. Show less