Reappraisal of the Climate Impacts of Ozone‐Depleting Substances
Morgenstern, O., O'Connor, F. M., Johnson, B. T., Zeng, G., Mulcahy, J. P., Williams, J., … Kinnison, D. E. (2020). Reappraisal of the Climate Impacts of Ozone‐Depleting Substances. Geophysical Research Letters, 47, 9. doi:10.1029/2020GL088295
We assess the effective radiative forcing due to ozone-depleting substances using models participating in the Aerosols and Chemistry and Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Projects (AerChemMIP, RFMIP). A large intermodel spread in this globally averaged quantity necessitates an "emergent con... Show moreWe assess the effective radiative forcing due to ozone-depleting substances using models participating in the Aerosols and Chemistry and Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Projects (AerChemMIP, RFMIP). A large intermodel spread in this globally averaged quantity necessitates an "emergent constraint" approach whereby we link the radiative forcing to ozone declines measured and simulated during 1979-2000, excluding two volcanically perturbed periods. During this period, ozone-depleting substances were increasing, and several merged satellite-based climatologies document the ensuing decline of total-column ozone. Using these analyses, we find an effective radiative forcing of -0.05 to 0.13 W m(-2). Our best estimate (0.04 W m(-2)) is on the edge of the "likely" range given by the Fifth Assessment Report of IPCC of 0.03 to 0.33 W m(-2) but is in better agreement with two other literature results. Show less