Abstract

This paper presents a global simulation-model for the steel and cement industries. The model covers the full modelling chain from economic activity, to materials consumption, trade, technology choice, production capacity, energy use and CO₂ emissions. Without climate policy, the future projection... Show moreThis paper presents a global simulation-model for the steel and cement industries. The model covers the full modelling chain from economic activity, to materials consumption, trade, technology choice, production capacity, energy use and CO₂ emissions. Without climate policy, the future projections based on the SSP2 scenario show a rapid increase in the consumption of steel and cement over the next few decades, after which demand levels are projected to stabilize. This implies that over the scenario period, CO₂ emissions are projected to peak in the next decades followed by a decrease below 2010 levels in 2050. There is considerable scope to mitigate CO₂ emissions from steel and cement industries, leading to resp. 80-90% and 40-80% reduction below 2010 in 2050 for a high carbon tax of 100 $/tCO₂ + 4%pa depending on the availability of Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS). Show less