Abstract

We explore current variability and future projections of winter Arctic sea ice thickness and growth using data from climate models and satellite observations. Winter ice thickness in the Community Earth System Model's Large Ensemble compares well against thickness estimates from the Pan-Arctic Ic... Show moreWe explore current variability and future projections of winter Arctic sea ice thickness and growth using data from climate models and satellite observations. Winter ice thickness in the Community Earth System Model's Large Ensemble compares well against thickness estimates from the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System and CryoSat-2, despite some significant regional differences-for example, a high thickness bias in Community Earth System Model's Large Ensemble in the western Arctic. Differences across the available CryoSat-2 thickness products hinder more robust validation efforts. We assess the importance of the negative conductive feedback of sea ice growth (thinner ice grows faster) by regressing October atmosphere/ice/ocean conditions against winter ice growth. Our regressions demonstrate the importance of a strong negative conductive feedback process in our current climate, which increases winter growth for thinner initial ice, but indicate that later in the 21st century this negative feedback is overwhelmed by variations in the fall atmosphere/ocean state. Show less