Abstract

The Analog Ensemble is a statistical technique that generates probabilistic forecasts using a current deterministic prediction, a set of historical predictions, and the associated observations. It generates ensemble forecasts by first identifying the most similar past predictions to the current o... Show moreThe Analog Ensemble is a statistical technique that generates probabilistic forecasts using a current deterministic prediction, a set of historical predictions, and the associated observations. It generates ensemble forecasts by first identifying the most similar past predictions to the current one, and then summarizing the corresponding observations. This is a computationally efficient solution for ensemble modeling because it does not require multiple numerical weather prediction simulations, but a single model realization. Show less