Rohling, E. J., Sluijs, A., Dijkstra, H. A., Köhler, P., Van de Wal, R. S. W., Von der Heydt, A. S., … Zeebe, R. E. (2012). Making sense of palaeoclimate sensitivity. Nature, 491, 683-691. doi:10.1038/nature11574
Many palaeoclimate studies have quantified pre-anthropogenic climate change to calculate climate sensitivity (equilibrium temperature change in response to radiative forcing change), but a lack of consistent methodologies produces a wide range of estimates and hinders comparability of results. He... Show moreMany palaeoclimate studies have quantified pre-anthropogenic climate change to calculate climate sensitivity (equilibrium temperature change in response to radiative forcing change), but a lack of consistent methodologies produces a wide range of estimates and hinders comparability of results. Here we present a stricter approach, to improve intercomparison of palaeoclimate sensitivity estimates in a manner compatible with equilibrium projections for future climatechange. Over the past 65 million years, this reveals a climate sensitivity (in KW-1 m(2)) of 0.3-1.9 or 0.6-1.3 at 95% or 68% probability, respectively. The latter implies a warming of 2.2-4.8 K per doubling of atmospheric CO2, which agrees with IPCC estimates. Show less
