Stuecker, M. F., Timmermann, A., Jin, F. -F., Chikamoto, Y., Zhang, W., Wittenberg, A. T., … Zhao, S. (2017). Revisiting ENSO/Indian Ocean Dipole phase relationships. Geophysical Research Letters, 44, 2481-2492. doi:10.1002/2016GL072308
Here we show that the characteristics of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), such as its power spectrum and phase relationship with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), can be succinctly explained by ENSO combination mode (C-mode) wind and heat flux forcing together with a seasonal modulation of t... Show moreHere we show that the characteristics of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), such as its power spectrum and phase relationship with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), can be succinctly explained by ENSO combination mode (C-mode) wind and heat flux forcing together with a seasonal modulation of the air/sea coupled Indian Ocean (IO) Bjerknes feedback. This model explains the observed high-frequency near-annual IOD variability in terms of deterministic ENSO/annual cycle interactions. ENSO-independent IOD events can be understood as a seasonally modulated ocean response to white noise atmospheric forcing. Under this new physical null hypothesis framework, IOD predictability is determined by both ENSO predictability and the ENSO signal-to-noise ratio. We further emphasize that lead/lag correlations between different climate variables are easily misinterpreted when not accounting properly for the seasonal modulation of the underlying climate phenomena. Show less