Abstract

Tsunamis can propagate thousands of kilometres across the ocean. Precise calculations of arrival times are essential for reliable early warning systems, determination of source and earth properties using the inverse problem, and time series modulation due to frequency dependency of phase speed. F... Show moreTsunamis can propagate thousands of kilometres across the ocean. Precise calculations of arrival times are essential for reliable early warning systems, determination of source and earth properties using the inverse problem, and time series modulation due to frequency dependency of phase speed. Far field observatories show a systematic discrepancy between observed and calculated arrival times. Models in present use and based on incompressible hydrodynamics and interaction with a rigid ocean floor overestimate the phase speed of tsunamis, leading to arrival time differences exceeding tens of minutes. These models neglect the simultaneous effects of the slight compressibility of water, sea-bed elasticity, and static compression of the ocean under gravity, hereinafter gravity. Here, we show that taking these effects into account results in more accurate phase speeds and travel times that agree with observations. Moreover, the semi-analytical model that we propose can be employed near real-time, which is essential for early warning inverse models and mitigation systems that rely on accurate phase speed calculations. Show less