Abstract

Solar activity during 2007 and 2008 was extremely low, including ultraviolet irradiance, solar wind parameters, and the interplanetary magnetic field. During this protracted solar minimum period, the terrestrial upper atmosphere and ionosphere were expectedly cooler, lower in density, and consequ... Show moreSolar activity during 2007 and 2008 was extremely low, including ultraviolet irradiance, solar wind parameters, and the interplanetary magnetic field. During this protracted solar minimum period, the terrestrial upper atmosphere and ionosphere were expectedly cooler, lower in density, and consequently lower in altitude, than usual. The question remains as to whether the terrestrial response to this solar minimum is significantly different from previous solar minima, and if so, how different. This question is posed against the backdrop of secular change due to increased levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, which increase tropospheric temperature but have the inverse effect of cooling the upper atmosphere. In order to understand the causes of these changes, and to quantify the interplay of the solar cycle with the evolution of upper atmosphere and ionosphere climate, we present a combination of data analysis and global numerical simulation. Thermospheric density data from atmospheric drag on satellites, ionospheric measurements by the COSMIC mission and from ground-based sources, and cooling rate data from the SABER instrument on the TIMED mission are compared to model simulations by the NCAR Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIE-GCM). Solar ultraviolet irradiance observations, solar wind and geomagnetic data, and measurements of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, provide the external forcing of the model. Changes during the descent into solar minimum are compared to previous solar minima, and to model simulations, to evaluate how much of the current phenomenon is attributable to solar variation, and how much to anthropogenic sources. Show less